# Quincy Institute, "The Cost of the Iran War to American Farmers" (Hadi Kahalzadeh, 21 Oct 2026) — recompute, 24 Oct 2026

This supports the note's numbers. Recomputed from the government's own data by a different path, the household fuel cost comes out at or above "nearly $1,000", and USDA's farm fuel figures are exact; against USDA's own pre-war forecast, the farm fuel increase is larger than the note says.

## 1. "Nearly $1,000 per household" in extra gasoline and diesel costs (the note cites Brown University's Costs of War tracker)
Our path: EIA weekly retail prices (regular gasoline EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG; on-highway diesel EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG) minus their February 2026 averages ($2.907 and $3.722 a gallon), times EIA weekly product supplied (finished motor gasoline WGFUPUS2; distillate WDIUPUS2), weeks of 2 March to 19 October 2026 (34 weeks); divided by 134.79 million US households (FRED TTLHH, 2025).
- Extra spending since the war began on 28 February: **$170.0 billion** ($105.0 billion gasoline, $65.0 billion distillate).
- Per household: **$1,261**; gasoline alone **$779**. The two bracket "nearly $1,000". Distillate here is all distillate product supplied (trucking, rail, farm and heating oil), so $1,261 is the upper figure.
- To 18 May: $55.4 billion, $411 a household, against the Brown brief's "over $40 billion" and "over $300" on that date. Brown compares with a modelled no-war price path; we compare with February's prices, which gives a somewhat larger number.

## 2. USDA farm fuel: "$21.6 billion in 2026, up from $16.8 billion in 2025"
USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, September 3, 2026 release, US "petroleum fuel & oil" expenses: **2026 forecast $21,624 million; 2025 $16,786 million** (+28.8%). Exact as quoted.
- 2026 would be the highest in the series since at least 2010; the previous high was $18,488 million in 2022.
- USDA's February 5, 2026 release, before the war: 2026 forecast **$14,993 million**, down from $15,966 million for 2025. So USDA moved from expecting a $1.0 billion drop to a $4.8 billion rise; against its own pre-war forecast, 2026 is **$6.6 billion** higher. The note's "exceeds $4.9 billion" year-over-year figure is $4.84 billion in USDA's numbers.

## 3. Pump prices quoted in the note (AAA)
EIA's weekly series tell the same story: regular gasoline $2.937 (23 Feb) to $4.354 (5 Oct); diesel $3.809 (23 Feb) to $6.199 (5 Oct).

Not checked: the farmer survey (70% can't afford all their fertilizer).

Files: iran-war-fuel-recompute.py, iran-war-fuel-weekly-2026.csv (each week's prices, volumes and extra cost), iran-war-usda-farm-fuel.csv (the USDA rows from both releases).