# Ethical Skeptic "Sudden Cardiac Death Ages 5-54" (X, 22 Oct 2026; threadreaderapp.com/thread/2113137376901955631) — recompute, 23 Oct 2026
Claim: "78.6% excess and rising = 603 deaths per week, 16-sigma excess, 148,000 younger person deaths above and beyond the old 2010 - 2019 validated SCD rate, which was in consistent 3.36% decline." Chart: MCoD, codes I45 I46 I47 I48 I49 I51 R00 R01 R09.2 R09.8 R96 R99, ages 5-54, MMWR weeks 2018-2026 wk15, "-3.36% Baseline Trend". (chart saved: ethicalskeptic_scd_5-54_chart.png)
Same codes (any mention, CDC WONDER regular-mode code picker), single-year ages 5-54, both sexes:
 Final MCD 1999-2020 (D77), calendar year:  deaths | rate/100k
  2010 55,072 26.0 | 2011 54,791 25.8 | 2012 54,666 25.8 | 2013 56,243 26.5 | 2014 55,787 26.2
  2015 56,269 26.4 | 2016 56,380 26.5 | 2017 56,184 26.4 | 2018 55,391 26.0 | 2019 53,890 25.4 | 2020 66,239 31.2
 Provisional D176 (vintage Oct 10 2026), MMWR year:
  2018 55,085 25.9 | 2019 53,650 25.3 | 2020 67,226 31.7 | 2021 75,611 35.3 | 2022 64,178 29.9 | 2023 57,241 26.6 | 2024 53,735 24.6 | 2025p 53,006 24.2 | 2026 partial 50,272 (R99 pending pool)
Findings: (1) 2010-2019 is flat (25.4-26.5 per 100k), not a 3.36%/yr decline. (2) 2025 = 24.2, the lowest rate of 2010-2025, ~7% below the 2010-19 average (26.1). (3) His figures imply a baseline of ~767 deaths/week (603/0.786) = ~39,900/yr, below every year 2010-2019 (min 53,890). The excess comes from the projected decline, not from deaths rising.
Prior art: sars2.net/ethical.html critiques his SCD charts (code choice, R99/999 lag, unstated baseline); ES's own 2026 post says baseline "normalized from 2014-2019". Not a paper (Colin 10/23).

## Added 24 Oct 2026: with X44
henjin (@henjin256) pointed out that ES's chart appears to include X44 (accidental poisoning by other/unspecified drugs), which is not in the listed codes. Same queries, ages 5-54, with X44 added (the 23 Oct figures above reproduced exactly first):
 Final D77, calendar year:  ES codes + X44 | X44 alone | rate/100k (+X44)
  2010 67,381 13,556 31.8 | 2011 68,800 15,383 32.5 | 2012 67,614 14,156 31.9 | 2013 69,305 14,287 32.7 | 2014 69,807 15,281 32.8
  2015 71,663 16,625 33.7 | 2016 74,677 19,675 35.1 | 2017 76,442 21,626 35.9 | 2018 73,573 19,385 34.6 | 2019 72,578 19,897 34.2 | 2020 93,941 29,173
 Provisional D176, MMWR year:  ES codes + X44 | X44 alone
  2018 73,158 19,268 | 2019 72,294 19,853 | 2020 95,294 29,558 | 2021 109,179 35,549 | 2022 97,763 35,443 | 2023 91,044 35,472 | 2024 78,947 26,479 | 2025p 73,697 21,771 | 2026 partial 55,344 5,376
2010-2019 trend (least-squares slope / mean): ES codes +0.02%/yr counts, -0.01%/yr rate (flat); ES codes + X44 +1.21%/yr counts, +1.18%/yr rate (rising). henjin's -0.45%/yr is all ages; for ages 5-54, adding X44 makes the trend rise. Neither series has a 3.36% decline. With X44 the series peaks in 2021 and by 2025 is back at the 2018-19 level, as X44 deaths fell 39% from 2023 to 2025.
Not checked: whether ES's chart actually includes X44, or how his 2024+ weekly series was built.