Bitkovian
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Regime market · BTC-collateralized · settles on a public rule
Where does Bitcoin land by the settlement block?
Settles in
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block —
BTC is in ACCUMULATION today. Over 8 days the model spreads to DISTRIBUTION 9% / ACCUMULATION 53% / MARKUP 38%. You bet against other people, not a house. The model sets the opening odds; the realized regime splits the pool, and the protocol only settles it.
BTC · close, shaded by regime
DeclineStableRise
Where does Bitcoin land by settlement?
Tap a choice to back it with your stake. If it wins, you split the pool with everyone who backed the same outcome, and a long shot takes a bigger slice. If it loses, you lose your stake. No house.
DeclineDistribution
9%chance
StableAccumulation
53%chance
RiseMarkup
38%chance
$USD
Place bet
Collateral locks on Bitcoin L1 when you confirm. Preview, DLC launching.
Settled by a rule anyone can recompute
01 Public inputThe regime is a deterministic function of public BTC price (log-return and realized vol). No VIX, no external feed.
02 CausalEach block is classified from data up to that block only. A settled block's regime never changes when new data arrives.
03 AttestedThe oracle signs one regime per settlement block, with a ZK proof. It has no discretion and cannot lie.
04 Non-custodialBTC sits in a 2-of-2 DLC on Bitcoin L1 the whole time. The winning regime's payout unlocks to your keys.
You are not trusting a model. You are betting on an open, published rule applied to public Bitcoin data, with one regime attested per block. Anyone can rerun it and get the same answer. You bet against other people, never a house: the protocol is only the referee and the matcher, and takes no side. Settlement runs on the RESOLVE layer.